Should We Attempt To Save the Earth or Become a Multi-Planetary Species?
If Earth is hit with some natural catastrophe, where would humanity be safer, on the planet, or somewhere else in the solar system?
By now, I’m sure you’ve heard Elon Musk talk about how we need to escape this planet as a civilization and colonize space as soon as possible. His theory is that it is way too dangerous to be a one-planet civilization because an extinction-level event is very much a possibility and could happen at any time.
There is always hard pushback against this idea in the form of - let’s focus on saving this planet and forget about leaving it. It would make sense, wouldn’t it? To save this planet, the one we already have? But can it be done?
I agree wholeheartedly with Elon on this one. Becoming a multi-planetary species is the safer choice—the wiser path. Allow me to explain.
Extinction-level events on this planet are nothing new
I see people struggling with this idea, but you’d have to be completely blind not to realize that every once in a while, about ten thousand years apart, something happens that completely changes the surface of our planet.
Volcanoes erupt, turning day into night for years.
Devastating earthquakes rearrange continents.
The climate changes from habitable to thriving for biological life and back to hardly survivable. Ice ages come and go.
There are signs of worldwide floods that wipe our whole civilizations.
Comets of various sizes continually fall on Earth, and it takes just about a mile-wide comet to wipe out all living beings from the face of the planet.
There are indications of gravitational changes throughout history regarding the moon and a possible tenth planet that would flip our core's rotation, causing absolute chaos on the surface.
One solar flair, one burst of its unfathomable energy, and we all burn to crisp instantly.
Our planet has gone through an infinite number of changes, transformations, and resets throughout its long history.
The problem is that we like to think only in times of a hundred, perhaps a couple of hundred years, since we have ways of measuring things, science, and books. Our whole civilization is thought to be something like 6,000 years old. New discoveries have pushed that back to 10, maybe 12,000 years. The truth is we simply don’t know. We just guess, based on the evidence, we manage to dig up.
It is entirely possible, as some indications and theories suggest, that humanity has developed a civilization multiple times before, but it always gets wiped out by some natural event. Something so devastating that it erases almost all of the evidence of any previous civilization and buries it hundreds or even thousands of meters under the ground.
Whole civilizations have flourished and then disappeared virtually overnight.
We know very little of them, much less about why they were extinguished. All we can do is theorize.
Extinction-level events always have and will continue to occur on this planet—and not just this one. If you delve into astronomy, you will learn about how much planets like Mars and Venus have changed during millions of years. Both could have theoretically once been inhabitable but are no longer so.
Whatever your beliefs on the topic, you cannot escape the fact that these things happen. Despite our vast egos as humanity, the reality is that we couldn’t stop even one of them.
We won’t be able to stop whatever is coming:
If a giant comet picks Earth as its target, the chances of us being able to stop it in a safe and meaningful way are minuscule. Nasa has been trying to test all sorts of ideas, but they have yet to be proven to work with certainty.
If the sun bursts even slightly over its usual limits, we may as well say goodbye unless we live underwater or in caves. No amount of ozone or sunscreen will make a speck of difference.
If an ancient volcano erupts and covers the planet in darkness for a decade, it will kill off over 95% of all life. Sharks, bugs, and crocodiles will probably survive. I’m not so sure about humanity.
If something causes the planet's temperature to change abruptly (not over long periods, as it changes naturally), there is nothing we can do about it. Rising oceans would simply swallow us whole. Have you not seen the marks of oceans in the desert, in the Great Canyon, on the mountain ranges?
The simple fact is - none of these things are under our control!
I didn’t mention things like plagues, viruses, or destruction by nuclear warheads because, while potentially devastating, they’re not really extinction-level events. Yes, even an all-out nuclear war wouldn’t wipe out all of humanity. “Only a few hundred million at worst, a billion or two including the fallout and civilizational decay over decades.” More importantly, these aren’t entirely out of our control.
So now what?
People today are completely mesmerized by global warming and climate change. I won’t waste time discussing climate change and our involvement in it because it’s become a religion, and one doesn’t argue religion. One either believes or is annihilated as an unbeliever.
The temperature of the planet has never, ever, in the history of the planet, been consistent for an extended period of time. Nature is constantly changing. Expecting consistency and permanence on this planet is insanity, like ordering the oceans to stand still. All you have to do is widen your perspective and look at what happens in the span of thousands of years instead of decades. The answer will be too obvious to miss.
Even if we could eliminate all human impact on our environment - if we disappeared completely, which seems to be the goal of so many lately - temperatures would still change, oceans would rise and recede, volcanoes would be dormant and then burst, the sun would do its little dance, and comets would still fall onto the surface every once in a while.
Sure, let’s do what we can to minimize our environmental impact, but let’s not pretend we have any power over what happens in the grand scheme of things.
There is always a nonzero chance of something out of our control wiping out human civilization.
It had done so a few times in the past, although some nations survived. Perhaps they were in the only survivable part of the planet. Some were hiding in caves. Others were so isolated atop mountains that nothing was able to reach them. Perhaps some were floating in giant arcs, riding the waves of destruction. Who knows. These would be a good indication that there are things we can do to survive almost any event.
In investing, we manage risk, among other ways, by diversification. If we list all possible things that could eliminate humanity and delete our civilization, we could also surmise a plan for a small part of humanity to survive the coming onslaught.
Diversifying humanity
For example, we could deliberately create communities that would survive some of these potential scenarios. Self-sustainable and with an entire library of human knowledge. Here are a few ideas:
Underground cities across the planet. This is the easiest of all civilizational risk management strategies. Not just bunkers but proper cities with everything people would need to survive a few years underground.
Deep underwater civilizations situated on the bottom of the sea floor. This one is more complicated and dangerous but probably doable on a small scale with time, effort, and funding.
It also makes sense to keep a fleet of civilian nuclear submarines floating around with occasional surfacing for refurbishment of resources.
A base on the Moon and Mars. On and under the surface. Now, things are getting complicated. This would eliminate all risks pertaining to planet Earth, apart from the influence of the sun and some gravitational games the potential tenth planet could cause, should it actually swing by one day. But I’m not sure how the “natives” would feel about it, hehe.
Habitable space stations flying out of our solar system never to return. AI-guided, with skeleton crews, a database, and embryos ready to repopulate another planet. Sending them in opposite directions would make sense. I know we’re getting all science fiction like here, but why not have some fun? It’s not like we’re trying to save all of humanity or something. Oh, wait.
Transhumanitarian efforts offer some additional ideas. If we can transfer our minds, memories, and essences into the digital space, we’ve again eliminated a potential problem of biological life forms. It would also make space travel a lot easier.
A comprehensive AI system would achieve a similar goal regarding safeguarding and transferring our knowledge, history, and an illustration of who we are as a species. Time capsules with AI?
But who would go on such a mission?
I can think of a few candidates, like people serving life sentences in prison and others curious enough to take the risk. We do remember how Australia was founded, right? They turned out alright. Semi-jokes aside, I believe that finding people for such missions and alternative lifestyles wouldn’t be so difficult, especially if they were given a purpose and would be taken care of, including their families. Not all enjoy life in today’s society and would gladly try something else. I would if I didn’t have a family, for example.
Prisons are an excellent resource for such experiments. Not because they’re expandable, but if you’re serving a life sentence, your life is forfeit anyway. More because I believe that it could be good for them. It would give them something to do, make amends for their mistakes, and offer them a more rewarding life than rotting away in a cell. Not all people in jail are rapists and murderers. Not all are beyond salvation.
Should some form of transhumanism become possible, that seems like an inexhaustible resource of people willing to go on an adventure. Imagine that you are eighty years old or terminally ill and are offered a chance to transfer your mind and personality into a digital form or a silicon body. Nothing to lose, everything to gain, unless you’re the religious type. Sign me up. Traveling through space in a robot body or without one sure beats watching boring soap operas alone in my bedroom with a frail body full of aches and pains waiting to die.
Space travel would also be an exciting option for some disabled people, for whom gravity is indeed a bitch. Lesser artificial gravity or free-floating would be a good solution for someone who can hardly move on our planet. And we haven’t even touched on the curious souls around the planet who would jump at the opportunity to explore the unknown of space despite making a huge personal sacrifice. There have always been explorers, and many have committed their lives to exploration at significant personal cost.
Can we do it? Do we have the knowledge and the technology?
That is a more problematic question. For some of these projects, we do. Like underground cities and submarines. Perhaps even for underwater civilian stations. Space is another question altogether. I don’t think we’re there yet. The one person who has made his life’s mission to make humanity a multi-planetary species seems to believe we’re getting close, though, and could start moving to Mars in a couple of years.
Either way, if we work toward a goal, we will get there. Of this, I’m sure. Perhaps not in our lifetimes, but eventually. Maybe even in time, before the next extinction-level event challenges our right to exist on this beautiful planet of ours.
Fear not
I wasn't trying to scare anyone with this story. It’s just a fun topic to think about. As fun as apocalypses can be. As I said, I agree with Elon that this is better risk management than just electrifying our car park, doubling taxes, and eliminating gas stoves. Diversifying humanity across different environments and planets seems prudent if most likely an overkill. Hopefully, it's overkill.
I don’t know what the chances of some catastrophic event wiping out all life on this planet are, but I am absolutely sure that:
They aren’t zero.
We can’t possibly predict it.
We can’t stop it.
It would then make sense to explore other options, ensuring the survival of humanity's knowledge, culture, and history. But that opens up a more fundamental question.
Are we worth saving?
If a reset of civilization were to happen, is it not better to simply forget what was and start anew fresh and without the burden of our collective history and beliefs? I would argue it is.
Knowing our past only makes us ideological idiots who could have learned from the past, but as is blatantly evident, we aren’t capable of that. We keep repeating the same mistakes over and over again. Most, I would assume, because of our history, beliefs, and all the memories entrenched in our consciousness.
Should we be erased from history?
It might be a good thing. For this planet. The life on it, and for any future incarnations of intelligent life. Perhaps there is a better way. Maybe the new humanity or even some other intelligent species would do better than we did. It’s not that difficult to imagine.
Besides, nature has eliminated dinosaurs with an apocalypse. Not to mention 99% of species that ever lived on our planet. Because those dinosaurs went extinct, mammals took over, and in time, humanity developed. At least, that’s the prevailing theory. Could it not be that we are the next dinosaurs and that whatever develops after us would be much better, wiser, and perhaps gentler than we are?
Species generally disappear for a reason.
They are no longer able to thrive in the environment. Something new comes next. Things change. It’s not necessarily a loss but an evolution, transmutation, and progress. We are some incredibly egocentric and pompous species to think that we are the absolute pinnacle of possible life and intelligence.
Perhaps until now. But in the future or on some distant planet or an alternate universe, we’re nothing more than self-aware dinosaurs hellbent on murder and destruction, incapable of elevated states of existence. Perhaps our time will run out for a reason, and something new, something better will come along.
I guess we’ll never know. Not unless we wander far into the vast darkness and the source of limitless possibilities that is the Universe. We may not know how to get there now, but we might if we put our minds to it and live long enough for technology to catch up.
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